Economic Outlook New Federal Reserve Leadership Begins Shaping Policy Direction Kevin Warsh officially assumed leadership of the Federal Reserve System in May, and his first FOMC meeting in June signaled a shift toward less forward guidance and a more traditional inflation-focused policy framework. Markets are closely evaluating how his leadership style could impact rate policy […]

Economic Climate: Growth: The U.S. economy is expected to continue expanding at a slower pace through 2026 as elevated interest rates, tighter credit conditions, and softer business investment weigh on overall activity, though resilient consumer spending has so far helped avoid a sharp downturn. Recent estimates place 2026 U.S. GDP growth between approximately 1.5% and […]

Economic Climate: Inflation: elevated but volatile Inflation is running around ~3.3% year-over-year, remaining above the Fed’s target. Energy prices—particularly oil—have been the primary driver of recent volatility. Core inflation continues to show stickiness, signaling underlying price pressures remain intact. Fed policy: holding steady, data-dependent The Federal Reserve is maintaining a “higher for longer” stance as […]

Economic Climate: Growth: U.S. economy is slowing but still expanding (~2%), with softer Q1 momentum driven by weaker consumption and external shocks. High-frequency data (retail sales, ISM) suggest demand is cooling, but resilient household balance sheets and services activity are preventing a sharper downturn. Inflation: Disinflation has stalled; core inflation is running ~2.7% with upside […]

Economic Climate: Growth has softened but remains positive Latest estimates show U.S. GDP growth slowed sharply at the end of 2025, expanded at a modest pace overall (about +2.2% for the year) after strong mid-year growth was weighed down by a prolonged government shutdown. Some projections for 2026 show growth around ~1.8%–2.4% — moderate rather […]

Economic Climate: U.S. economic growth remains moderate but positive, with forecasts suggesting real GDP expansion around or above trend in 2026 (e.g., around ~2.2–2.6% for the full year according to some forecasts). Strong recent growth in late 2025 (e.g., robust Q3 and Q4 figures) may carry momentum into early 2026, though this may not persist […]

Defeasance 2025 Year in Review: · Defeasance activity in 2025 occurred against a stressed CMBS backdrop, with overall delinquency rates remaining elevated above 7% for much of the year, limiting opportunistic loan payoffs and refinancing-driven defeasance. · Office and multifamily sectors exhibited heightened distress, with office delinquencies reaching record levels and multifamily delinquency rising to […]

Economic Climate: According to Vanguard, the U.S. economy has regained momentum after the end of the 43-day federal shutdown — they lift their 2025 growth estimate to about 1.9%. Third-quarter 2025 data suggests growth remained solid: private business investment and consumer demand held up relatively well, and many states saw income growth. Inflation has moderated […]

Economic Climate: Moderate U.S. growth (~1.8 – 2.0%) — The economy is slowing but not contracting; consumer spending and services remain resilient while manufacturing and exports face headwinds. Inflation slightly sticky (~3%) — Price pressures have eased but not fully normalized; the Fed remains cautious, likely delaying aggressive rate cuts until inflation moves closer to […]

Economic Climate: Growth Cooling – GDP growth is projected around 1.6% for 2025, with Q3 still solid but a slowdown expected into late 2025. Inflation Moderating but Sticky – Core PCE inflation is easing, though it remains above the Fed’s 2% target, with risks from tariffs and supply pressures. Labor Market Softening – Unemployment is […]